By Donna Kathryn Kelly, Opinion
Americans have been bombarded with numbers over the course of the past eighteen or so months. And while we should be able to rely upon our elected and appointed leadership at the federal level, as well as the corporate press, to state accurate numbers, percentages, and statistics, instead, it seems that we are presented daily with inconsistencies, inaccuracies and implausibilities. This is perhaps most evident, when we are presented with something that should be as precise as basic math. The numbers seem to change depending on the day or the speaker or the medium.
Let’s take President Joe Biden’s claim earlier this week on Tuesday, August 31, 2021, that: “The bottom line: Ninety percent of Americans in Afghanistan who wanted to leave were able to leave.” In order to so state, the President would have to know the actual number of “Americans in Afghanistan who wanted to leave.” Despite what Biden actually said during his speech to the American people, the White House has noticeably since modified the transcript of the President’s remarks on its website, by striking through the word “Ninety” and replacing it with the word “Ninety-eight”, perhaps signaling that the President did not read from his prepared speech correctly. (See: whitehouse.gov, Transcript of Remarks by President Biden on the End of the War in Afghanistan, August 31, 2021).
In any event, how could Biden know the actual number of Americans in Afghanistan who wanted to leave, when his administration had been telling the American people for the preceding two weeks amid the chaos and violence in Afghanistan that the number of American citizens who were in Afghanistan was uncertain? How does one calculate the percentage of an unknown amount?
Let’s start with the words of Biden’s Chief Press Secretary, Jen Psaki, a mere two weeks prior to Mr. Biden’s statement. On August 17, 2021, when asked how many Americans were in Afghanistan, Psaki indicated that “there are individuals who will self-identify as American citizens — that number is around 11,000.” (See: whitehouse.gov, Transcript of Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, August 17, 2021 ).
On August 23, 2021, a week before the President’s national address, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan described the challenges that the Biden-Harris administration was facing in determining how many American citizens were actually still in Afghanistan. He explained that the government had been reaching out to individual Americans whom it believed were possibly in Afghanistan: at that point, via telephone, email, text messaging and via public broadcasting means to contact them, to find out their location, to ascertain whether they would like to leave, and to find out the number of people with them. Sullivan also stated: “But, of course, when you’re trying to ultimately determine a precise fixed number, that is a dynamic and ongoing process. It’s ongoing today. It will be ongoing tomorrow.” (See: whitehouse.gov., Transcript of Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, August 23, 2021).
More importantly, on August 30, 2021 – only a mere day before the President’s address – Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated in his prepared remarks that the United States had evacuated approximately 6,000 individuals who “self-identified as American citizens in Afghanistan.” Blinken had previous utilized a figure of 6,000 when, on August 25, 2021, he stated, “Based on our analysis, starting on August 14 when our evacuation operations began, there was then a population of as many as 6,000 American citizens in Afghanistan who wanted to leave.” Blinken did not bother to address or explain the vast discrepancy between Psaki’s 11,000 figure and his 6,000 figure. (See: state.gov, Transcript of Secretary Anthony J. Blinken’s Remarks on Afghanistan, August 25, 2021 & August 30, 2021).
What is clear is that 6,000 of 11,000 is not ninety-percent: In fact, far from it.
In his prepared statement on August 30, 2021, Blinken indicated that the United States government believed there are “under 200 and likely closer to 100 – who remain in Afghanistan and want to leave.” He explained that many Americans in Afghanistan have dual-citizenship with deep roots and family ties to Afghanistan, indicating that many of them faced a “painful choice” as to whether to leave Afghanistan to the United States. In the context of Psaki’s 11,000 figure, one could surmise from Blinken’s comments that he is suggesting that nearly 5,000 Americans, many of whom hold dual-citizenship, would prefer, for familial reasons, to choose to remain in a country ruled by the Taliban than to come to the country governed by the Biden-Harris Administration.
But, more importantly, in his prepared remarks, given one day before the President’s speech, Blinken indicated that the precise number of Americans in Afghanistan who do wish to return to the United States is not certain. In fact, he stated: “ We’re trying to determine exactly how many.” (See: state.gov, Transcript of Secretary Anthony J. Blinken’s remarks on Afghanistan, August 30, 2021).
Yet, the very next day President Joe Biden was sure. Importantly, the President’s speech to the American people was a prepared one. It was not some off-the-cuff-response to any reporter who might actually have the guts to ask a meaningful question of him. This was a speech by design. And President Joe Biden was certain: Ninety-percent of Americans in Afghanistan who wanted to leave were able to leave. The bottom line: President Biden’s use of fuzzy math in this context casts doubt on the veracity of other figures being presented by his Administration.