Polling results used to be something that the American public generally relied upon for accuracy in regard to projections of anticipated election results, measures of political views, and gauges of opinions on social issues. But polling, in recent years, has taken a hit in credibility. While some of this deterioration in credibility is a result of polling relating to the 2016 and 2020 elections, it is also likely due to manipulation in the manner in which polling results are utilized by the media to influence public opinion.
For example, let’s take a look at Newsweek’s coverage earlier this week regarding the WV MetroNews West Virginia Poll of four hundred registered West Virginia voters. On September 8, 2021, Newsweek published an online news article by Darragh Roche entitled, “Joe Manchin’s Approval Rating Drops as Senator Rebuffs Infrastructure Bill.” Now, it is true that the poll, which is referenced in the Newsweek article, reflects that Senator Joe Manchin’s approval rating among voters in West Virginia declined from 44% percent approval in October 2020 to 42% approval in August of this year. [See, Poll: Justice and Capito show solid approval, while Manchin hangs tight, by Brad McElhinny, Metro News, September 3, 2021]. But, at the same time, as the Newsweek article references, the poll also found that the percentage of West Virginia voters who disapprove of the Senator’s job performance has declined: from 44% last October to 37% in August of this year. 21% of those polled in August responded with neither a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Manchin’s job performance.
Somehow, despite the alarming tone of the Newsweek headline, I find it doubtful that Senator Manchin is losing sleep over any imaginary precipitous “drop” in his approval rating. In reality, the polling results reflect that there has only been a negligible decline in the Senator’s approval rating over the course of the past year, and, at the same time, the poll reflects that the percentage of voters who disapprove of his job performance has decreased.
More problematic in the Newsweek piece though, is that the headline and the article itself raise an inference that there is some correlation between the Senator’s decline in approval rating and his stance on the $3.5 trillion dollar infrastructure proposal and/or the Senator’s opposition to the proposed For the People Act. But, here’s the problem with reporting poll results while couched in innuendo: In truth, there is no evidence from the poll results that the Senator’s modest dip in approval rating has anything whatsoever to do with either the infrastructure bill or the voting rights bill. The slight dip in approval rating of the Senator’s job performance over the past year among his constituency cannot be said to be a bellwether of the views of West Virginians on either of these issues.
Yet, here is what Newsweek evidently wants readers to believe: Joe Manchin’s poll numbers are plummeting in West Virginia as a result of his positions on two issues that are important to progressives – the $3.5 trillion dollar infrastructure proposal and voting rights legislation. In reality, there is no demonstrable nexus between Manchin’s approval rating and either of these two liberal proposals. Indeed, it is entirely possible that Manchin’s slight decline in approval rating over the course of the past year could be based on a perception by West Virginians that he hasn’t taken a strong enough stance against the national progressive-leftist agenda or that he erred in his condemnation of President Trump in January of 2021 in voting guilty on the articles of impeachment.
The Newsweek article reports that the poll was conducted during the period of August 20 to 25, and notes that this time frame is after the Senator had publicly stated his opposition to the voting rights bill, the For the People Act. However, the article fails to mention that this period was during the time frame that the Democrat-helmed administration’s bungling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan was front and center in the news and that other polls reflect a decline in President Joe Biden’s approval rating in August as well. [See, e.g., Biden approval remains below 50% for third week, by Chris Kahn, Reuters Polling Editor, Reuters, Sept. 2, 2021.]
This Newsweek article is just one example of how the mainstream media uses polling data to present a particular narrative. Unfortunately, we now live in a time where the news is all about the spin, all about the influence, and less about the facts.