(LOOTPRESS) – A very strong El Niño is expected to shape the upcoming winter, favoring warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States and wetter conditions across the South and East Coast.
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook, released Oct. 15, covers December 2026 through February 2027. The forecast also points to improving drought conditions across several regions, including parts of the East, Southern Great Plains and Southwest.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said El Niño will likely shift the jet stream southward and eastward, increasing the chances of a stormier winter across the southern United States.
While additional precipitation could help drought-stricken communities, Graham cautioned that heavy rainfall can also bring destructive flash flooding and mudslides.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East and Alaska. Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, are more likely to experience temperatures near seasonal averages.
The precipitation outlook favors wetter-than-average conditions from the Southwest through the Southeast and along the East Coast. Meanwhile, parts of the northern Mountain West and Great Lakes, along with much of Alaska and Hawaii, face increased chances of a drier winter.
For the Ohio Valley, NOAA gives equal chances of above-average, near-average or below-average precipitation.
The outlook does not predict how much snow any community will receive. A wetter winter does not necessarily mean a snowier winter, and seasonal averages do not determine the weather during individual storms.
NOAA is also introducing additional tools to help communities prepare for winter hazards. Its operational Probabilistic Precipitation Portal displays potential low-end, expected and high-end amounts of rain, snow and ice, along with the likelihood of precipitation exceeding specific amounts.
The National Weather Service can also use “Particularly Dangerous Situation” wording in select blizzard and ice storm warnings when forecasters have high confidence that a storm will reach extreme or historic severity.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates seasonal outlooks monthly, with the next update scheduled for Nov. 19. Residents can follow local forecasts, watches and warnings at weather.gov.
