(LOOTPRESS) – Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center of the NOAA National Weather Service predict that the Atlantic basin will experience more hurricanes than usual this year.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, from June 1 to November 30, is expected to have an 85% chance of being more active than normal, a 10% chance of being close to normal, and a 5% chance of being less active than normal.
NOAA expects a total of 17 to 25 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, of which 8 to 13 may become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher. Among these hurricanes, 4 to 7 may be major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The forecasters are 70% confident in these predictions.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active due to several factors, including very warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear, all of which favor tropical storm formation.
NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad emphasized the agency’s commitment to providing life-saving information to the public, including AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone to meet their mission of saving lives and protecting property.
FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks stressed the importance of being prepared for severe weather and emergencies, urging individuals and communities to take proactive steps to address the increasingly challenging climate landscape.
As the strong El Nino phase nears its end, NOAA scientists anticipate a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are favorable for Atlantic hurricane activity due to reduced wind shear in the tropics. Additionally, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea provides more energy for storm development.
The potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can spawn strong and long-lived Atlantic storms, is also a feature of this hurricane season, alongside light trade winds that promote hurricane intensification and minimize ocean cooling.