(LOOTPRESS) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025–2026 winter outlook on Thursday, forecasting a season of contrasting conditions across the United States from December through February.
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, much of the contiguous U.S. is expected to experience warmer-than-average temperatures, with southern states likely facing a warmer and drier winter than usual. In contrast, northern regions are forecast to see cooler, wetter weather through the core winter months.
These patterns reflect the country’s recent shift into La Niña, the cooler phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate cycle. The ENSO system is driven by sea surface temperatures and precipitation trends across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which can significantly influence weather patterns across North America.
Earlier this month, NOAA confirmed that the U.S. had entered the La Niña phase, marked by below-average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This phase typically brings drought conditions to the South and heavy rains and flooding to the Pacific Northwest and parts of Canada. During winter, La Niña often translates into warmer, drier conditions across the southern U.S. and cooler, snowier weather in the northern states.
Forecasters expect La Niña to persist through February 2026, before gradually easing back to a neutral phase by spring.
While NOAA’s outlook does not specifically project snowfall totals, it does forecast above-normal precipitation for regions including the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the northern Rockies, Great Plains, and western Great Lakes. Meanwhile, below-average precipitation is likely across the Southwest, southern Texas, and much of the Southeast, consistent with typical La Niña impacts.
Outside the lower 48 states, northwestern Alaska is forecast to experience a warmer and wetter winter, while the panhandle region may see cooler and drier conditions. NOAA said a separate outlook will be released for the Hawaiian Islands.
The 2025–2026 outlook highlights how La Niña will once again play a defining role in shaping America’s winter—bringing warmth to some regions, snow to others, and challenges to many in between.
