WASHINGTON, D.C. (LOOTPRESS) – Democrats are entering Tuesday’s midterm elections with an improved outlook for control of Congress, according to election forecasts from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
The political forecasting publication Sabato’s Crystal Ball has moved several competitive congressional races toward Democrats in recent weeks, raising the possibility that the party could gain control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate.
The forecasts are based on polling, voting trends, candidate performance and other political factors. They are predictions, not official election results.
Democrats Have an Advantage in the House
In its October 27 ratings, Sabato’s Crystal Ball identified 225 House seats as at least leaning Democratic, compared with 193 seats leaning Republican. Another 17 races were considered toss-ups, meaning neither party had a clear advantage.
A party needs 218 seats to control the 435-member House.
That means Democrats had more than enough seats in their favored column to reach a majority, although those races were not guaranteed victories.
Several Republican-held districts that previously appeared relatively safe have also become more competitive as Election Day approaches.
Senate Control Could Come Down to a Few States
The battle for the U.S. Senate is expected to be much closer.
The October 27 Crystal Ball forecast showed 49 seats at least leaning Democratic, 46 at least leaning Republican and five races rated toss-ups.
Democrats have opportunities to gain Republican-held seats in states including Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and Kansas.
Alaska and Michigan are also among the closely watched Senate contests.
The forecasting team said Democrats appeared to have a narrow advantage in the battle for Senate control, but several races remained close enough to go either way.
Maine and Texas could be particularly important in determining which party controls the chamber.
Governor’s Races Also Could Shift
The outlook for governor’s races has also changed.
The October 27 Crystal Ball ratings placed 26 governorships in the Democratic-favored column, 22 in the Republican-favored column and two in the toss-up category.
Competitive races in states such as Ohio, Nevada and Georgia could help determine the balance of power in state governments after the election.
What Do the Election Ratings Mean?
Sabato’s Crystal Ball uses several categories to describe how competitive an election is.
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Safe: One party is overwhelmingly favored to win.
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Likely: One party has a strong advantage, but an upset remains possible.
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Leans: One party has an advantage, although the race remains competitive.
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Toss-up: Neither party has a clear advantage.
The ratings do not represent vote totals or guarantees. They reflect the forecasters’ assessment of each race based on available information.
Election Day Is Tuesday
Voters across the country will head to the polls Tuesday, November 3, to decide control of Congress and numerous state and local offices.
Even with Democrats gaining ground in election forecasts, the results will ultimately depend on turnout and how voters cast their ballots.
The outcome will determine which party controls the House and Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s current term.
Source: University of Virginia Center for Politics, Sabato’s Crystal Ball. 2026 Final Election Ratings
