Joe Manchin has been a part of West Virginia’s political fabric since his first election in 1982 to the West Virginia House of Delegates. While the rest of the country easily overlooked the Mountain State during the 80’s and 90’s, Manchin quietly honed his skills as a politician, and became the seasoned political professional he is today. Manchin’s legislative career in the State House spanned 16 years, at which time he made the only tactical error in politics that many of us ever noticed: he ran for Governor in 1996 and lost in the primary to Charlotte Pritt. Cecil Underwood, the Republican nominee, would go on to win the general election.
One might think that the saga of Joe Manchin would end there, like so many others. It is not uncommon in West Virginia for a legislator that is nearing the end of their career, whether that end be of their choosing or not, to take one last crack at a state-wide office. Going out with a bang. Many may have thought that was what Manchin was doing in 1996. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn’t, but what he clearly did was develop a plan for the next 25 years of his career that has gone off without a hitch since, as much as a plan in politics can.
As we sit here today Manchin has ascended from Secretary of State to Governor, and finally, to the United States Senate, taking over the seat of the late Robert C. Byrd. Those that wrote him off in 1996 likely never would’ve imagined the world today. Much like his predecessor, Manchin has also assumed the role of antagonist to an extremely liberal administration and congressional leadership. After his bouts with the Biden Administration and Senate leadership in 2021 over Biden’s Build Back Better plan, Manchin has been greeted with headlines touting him as “the Most Powerful Man in Washington.”
While many of these headlines have also touted his likelihood to switch parties to Republican, it is likely he won’t, for several reasons. His strongest support comes from labor. The blue-collar worker can identify with what they see as a down-to-earth pragmatist that is just trying to find the best solution for the country. Secondly, Manchin is not perfect on the “red” social issues. While he famously took aim in campaign ads in 2010 against President Obama’s cap-and-trade proposal for carbon credits, he also took aim several years later at a lawsuit filed by Attorney General Patrick Morrissey against the Affordable Care Act. He is also the victim of a familiar internet meme featuring Manchin posing with Pro-Life advocates and then separately with Pro-Choice advocates. This dichotomy has led Manchin to be observed as the penultimate crossover candidate by moderates. The candidate that can lead from the center and bring back a by-gone era of bipartisanship and progress, though that has not existed since the election of George Washington. To the solid conservative voter though, his wide and varied values on social issues make him too dangerous to back as a Republican candidate.
With the primary election of 2022 recently behind us, much speculation has been cast on the potential Governor’s race of 2024. With Governor Jim Justice, II term-limited, the state will undoubtedly elect a new Governor in 2024. With what is likely to be a packed Republican field, some still believe Manchin may run for Governor again. While he could, he likely won’t. Manchin is likely sitting exactly where he wants to be.
What signs point to a Manchin run for President? Manchin has quietly been on a fundraising rampage for the last year. According to filings with the Federal Election Commission, Manchin currently has almost $8 million dollars cash on hand in his campaign account. According to the same filings, over 95% of that was raised in the last year. While there have been various expenditures and receipts, it is strange that Manchin was raising almost $1.5 million per quarter in 2021, a non-election year. He has continued that pace through the close of the April filing period and does not appear to be letting up soon. While $8 million is a far cry from the +$1 billion it is projected to take to win a national Presidential election, Manchin is more testing the waters to prove the point that he can raise money and support in any part of the country.
The other sign with campaign contributions is the source. Reports and news stories indicate that Manchin has been raising this money across the country. From Florida to the West, Manchin has found generous friends throughout the country. These friends are also of both red and blue persuasions, adding to the testament of Manchin’s crossover abilities.
The biggest question is not how Manchin would fare in a general election, as democrat voters would undoubtedly support a moderate of their own party over what will likely be a Republican candidate solidly to the right, such as Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump, but how does Manchin win a primary? While Manchin might play well to a sizeable number of conservatives, liberals view his politics as non-committal and dangerous to their agenda. Manchin did single-handedly torpedo the most expensive liberal wish list in United States history just last year with his stance against the Build Back Better plan of the Biden Administration.
However, much of the center of the country, that still migrates from blue to red and back, is still populated with labor democrats that hold conservative social values. This “blue dog” democrat voter is what ultimately led to Biden winning the Democrat primary over more liberal candidates in 2020. The question remains, can Manchin wrest the nomination from a sitting President? With Biden’s approval rating bouncing between 40% to 45%, and national gas prices encroaching on $5.00 per gallon and climbing, Biden’s security in a second nomination is in jeopardy if the Democrat convention were held today. It is likely that a new, centrist Democrat could silence the loud liberal party fringe and unify a party that has been desperately fighting an ideological civil war behind closed doorssince the departure of Barrack Obama.
While it is possible Manchin could contend for the 2024 Democrat nomination, and could contend for election as President, the question ultimately becomes “What will Manchin choose, President or Senate?” Does he take the sure thing and run for US Senate again, or is it 1996 all over again and he takes another shot, this time for the highest office in the land?
The answer to that is he can do both. Many states have different ballot access laws as they are called. West Virginia Code 3-5-7(h) states “a person may not be a candidate for more than one office or office division at any election: Provided, That a candidate for an office may also be a candidate for President of the United States…” A similar provision in Texas allowed Lyndon Johnson in 1960 to simultaneously run for the Texas US Senate seat he currently occupied while being the Vice Presidential candidate and running mate to President John F. Kennedy.
Given these provisions of West Virginia law, Manchin could seek both offices. However, it is questionable as to whether Manchin would be able to effectively run a statewide Senate campaign while running nationally for President. Another candidate, possibly Congressman Alex Mooney, Attorney General Patrick Morrissey, or even Governor Jim Justice, II, would make life very difficult for Manchin in a contested General Election with Manchin campaigning in Michigan rather than West Virginia. With Manchin’s attention divided between seeking both offices, it is quite possible he could lose both.
Possibly the most definitive indicator of a Manchin candidacy for President is the fact the curtain will soon fall on the great political show that has been his career. Manchin, born in 1947, will be 77 years old in 2024. While he is in good health and as sharp as he ever was, the window is closing for Manchin. 2024 will likely be the last time that he would have a shot at running for President. 2024 may just be Manchin’s 1996 all over again. It may be time for him to risk it all if only to answer the question for himself. For a man whose political legacy is only overshadowed by Robert Byrd himself, running for President may be his only chance to escape the shadow.