(LOOTPRESS) – Astronomers are closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, a newly discovered space rock with a potential 1-in-43 chance of colliding with Earth. While the probability remains low, scientists are conducting detailed observations to refine its trajectory and assess any possible threat.
A Close Watch on 2024 YR4
The asteroid was first identified in late December 2024 by sky surveys scanning for near-Earth objects (NEOs). Based on preliminary calculations, 2024 YR4 measures approximately 30 to 50 meters in diameter—similar in size to the Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013, causing significant damage and injuries from its shockwave.
NASA‘s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the European Space Agency (ESA) are tracking the asteroid to determine whether it could enter Earth’s atmosphere. Current projections suggest a possible impact window within the next few decades, though additional data could reduce or eliminate the risk.
Understanding the 1-in-43 Odds
A 1-in-43 chance means the asteroid has roughly a 2.3% probability of striking Earth. While this is higher than most tracked asteroids, the vast majority of objects in similar orbits eventually miss our planet due to slight gravitational changes.
Dr. Sarah Mitchell, an asteroid researcher at NASA, reassured the public, stating:
“Even with these initial odds, there’s no need for immediate concern. As we collect more data, we expect the risk assessment to change significantly—likely in favor of a non-impact scenario.”
Potential Impact Consequences
If 2024 YR4 were to enter Earth’s atmosphere, its effects would depend on its size, speed, and impact location. A mid-air explosion similar to the Chelyabinsk event could cause localized damage, while a direct impact could create a crater and produce shockwaves capable of affecting a larger area.
However, scientists emphasize that Earth has atmospheric defenses—smaller asteroids often burn up before reaching the surface. In the unlikely case of a direct impact, planetary defense initiatives such as NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission provide potential strategies for deflection.
What’s Next?
Astronomers will continue to monitor 2024 YR4 using ground-based telescopes and radar imaging to refine its orbit. NASA and ESA will update their risk assessments in the coming months, with new data likely clarifying whether Earth is truly at risk.
For now, experts encourage the public to stay informed but not alarmed. As history has shown, early detection is key to managing potential asteroid threats, and 2024 YR4 is under close watch.
The notice gives the potential date of impact as December 22, 2032, and lists the possible impact locations (from across the eastern Pacific, northern South America, into Africa and southern Asia). Because it’s currently so dim and far away, size estimates vary from between 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 m). If it were to strike Earth, it would cause “severe blast damage.” Specifically, the blast damage could occur as far as 30 miles (50 km) from the site of impact.
