(LOOTPRESS) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season in 2025, citing a mix of climate and oceanic conditions that favor the formation and intensification of storms.
In its official outlook released Thursday, NOAA predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
Forecasters expect 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), including 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 3 to 5 major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher (winds of 111 mph or greater). NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these ranges.
“With the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge tracking systems in place, we’ve never been more prepared for hurricane season,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Why a Busy Season?
Several factors are driving the increased forecast:
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Warm Atlantic waters that provide more energy for storm development.
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Low wind shear, allowing storms to grow undisturbed.
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A potential northward shift in the West African Monsoon, which often triggers long-lasting tropical systems.
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The continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning no strong El Niño or La Niña patterns to suppress storm activity.
“This outlook is a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of the National Weather Service. “Take proactive steps now. Make a plan, gather supplies, and stay informed.”
Upgrades and Tools for 2025
NOAA is rolling out several improvements this season aimed at enhancing public safety and forecasting accuracy:
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Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System Upgrade: Expected to improve storm tracking and intensity forecasting by 5%.
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Earlier Warnings: Tropical storm and surge advisories can now be issued up to 72 hours in advance, giving communities more time to prepare.
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Extended Tropical Hazards Outlook: Now provides risk assessments up to three weeks in advance.
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Spanish-language Products: More advisory content is now available in Spanish to improve accessibility.
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Updated Forecast Cone Graphics: This year’s version includes inland warning areas and new visual cues for overlapping watch and warning zones.
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Rip Current Risk Maps: Issued when an active tropical system is present to warn beachgoers of dangerous surf conditions.
New Tech in the Sky and on the Ground
NOAA will also deploy ROARS, a new radar system aboard its P-3 “hurricane hunter” aircraft, capable of scanning beneath the plane to measure wind structure and ocean conditions in real time.
Additionally, the Probabilistic Precipitation Portal will allow emergency managers and residents to monitor potential flash flooding risks up to three days in advance. This is particularly important following last year’s devastation from Hurricane Helene, which dumped over 30 inches of rain in North Carolina.
“The impacts of hurricanes aren’t just felt on the coast,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “Inland flooding can be just as deadly.”
More to Come
This outlook is not a landfall forecast, and it’s impossible to predict exactly where or when storms will strike. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will issue an updated seasonal outlook in early August, ahead of the historical peak of hurricane activity in September.
For now, NOAA urges individuals and communities to review emergency plans, monitor forecasts, and stay alert as the 2025 season approaches.
For updates and preparedness tips, visit www.hurricanes.gov.
