Playoff Ratings
The final week of the regular season is upon which means everyone is running the scenarios to see where they could land in the playoff picture.
Heading into Week 11, here are where the area teams currently sit according to Tailgate Central’s database which has been accurate throughout the season.
Class AAAA
Beckley – No. 12
Class AAA
Princeton No. 2
Oak Hill No. 5
Shady Spring No. 11
Class AA
Independence No. 4
Bluefield No. 6
Nicholas County No. 12
James Monroe No. 13
Westside No. 15
Class A
Meadow Bridge No. 9
River View No. 11
By most accounts it appears all of the aforementioned teams have locked up playoff berths with exception of James Monroe and Westside.
It’s also important to note that several schools appealed to have the ratings points restored to the values that they were supposed to be before the preseason shuffling that dropped multiple schools down a class. Those appeals were denied by the WVSSAC but I’d be stunned if those schools didn’t take the matter to court, get an injunction and get the ratings points restored to their original values by this time next week.
Until that happens I’ll operate under the current system.
The teams in play for a first-round home game are Meadow Bridge, Independence, Bluefield, Oak Hill and Princeton.
I’ll start with Princeton since it has the best shot at the highest seed in Class AAA. For Princeton the math is pretty simple – win Friday night against Parkersburg South and the Tigers should be the No. 1 overall seed in Class AAA. I can’t overstate how important that is.
Last year Princeton’s run to the state championship was aided by the fact it ended up on the easier side of the bracket. The Tigers avoided Huntington and Martinsburg and benefitted from Parkersburg and Bridgeport upsetting higher seeds.
Getting the No. 1 seed in Class AAA this year means you likely avoid Spring Valley, Fairmont Senior and Bridgeport until Charleston. And while Herbert Hoover is having a really nice season and locked into the No. 4 seed, there’s a wildly held belief that Princeton, Spring Valley, Bridgeport and Fairmont Senior are a tier above the other Class AAA teams. I subscribe to that belief myself.
If Princeton wins, it’s likely Spring Valley stays at No. 7 and Bridgeport and Fairmont battle for the two and three seeds. That means Princeton would avoid all of those teams until the state championship game, should the Tigers make it that far. Even if the points change, Princeton probably benefits from that as Independence bumps to triple-A points and Oak Hill and Capital bump to quad-A points.
Oak Hill’s scenario is more fluid. If the Red Devils win at University on Friday they should lock the No. 5 seed up. If they lose they’ll likely fall to No. 7 and still host a first-round playoff game. Shady Spring is out of the running for a home playoff game
In Class AA Independence appears to be locked into a home playoff game but has a realistic chance of hosting at least two and getting the No. 3 seed. The Patriots need to first win against Summers County on Friday and hope that Scott can beat Williamstown, both realistic scenarios. It wouldn’t hurt if Shady Spring could manage to beat Wheeling Central on the other side of Raleigh County but it’s my understanding that even if Wheeling Central wins, Indy should get that No. 3 seed. The most important game for Indy though will be Scott-Williamstown. If Williamstown wins, Indy would need Shady to beat Wheeling Central, otherwise the Patriots would be the No. 5 seed and likely hit the road in the second round.
Bluefield should host a playoff game regardless of the Week 11 results but has an outside shot of nabbing the No. 5 seed. The most likely scenario has the Beavers securing the No. 6 seed, one that seemed unlikely when they were 1-3. James Monroe has an outside shot of losing and still getting in but the Mavericks will need some help. The easiest path is the one they control.
Westside’s path is pretty simple – win as a heavy favorite and you’re in. Lose and you’re likely out.
In Class A Meadow Bridge can get to No. 8 and host a home playoff game. Greenbrier West is on the outside and needs numerous outside factors to fall in its favor.
Again, a likely injunction could muddy the picture but that’s where the scenarios sit heading into the final week of the season.
Big Play Bailey
Some athletes have that ability to hit an extra gear when their team needs it. Shady Spring’s Jalon Bailey is one of those athletes.
With Westside driving in the red zone in the fourth quarter of a tied game, Bailey stripped a ballcarrier and returned a fumble 77 yards. Shady took the lead on the next play and never looked back, winning 35-14 behind three fourth-quarter scores. Bailey set up two of those with an interception on the next defensive snap following his forced fumble and recovery.
His penchant for coming through in big spots extends past the gridiron.
Remember when he scored 10 points in the third quarter of the Class AAA basketball state championship game in March, carrying the Tigers when they needed it most? Or when he nailed four free throws in overtime of that same game?
It’s one thing to have a player that knows what you need. It’s another to have one that can go out and get it.
“I live for those moments like that, that’s what I live for,” Bailey said after Friday’s win. “That’s why I play the game.”
Beckley-Oak Hill
This matchup was an inflection point for both teams.
Oak Hill needed a signature win to help ensure a home playoff game. Beckley needed to stop its skid.
In the end the Red Devils gutted it out, weathered the storms and held on to secure a 19-14 victory. The level of success Davon Marion has achieved can be understated. This Oak Hill program was one that struggled to compete for a playoff spot in double-A just seven years ago, losing to Class A teams Midland Trail, Fayetteville and Mount View.
Now they’re going to make the playoffs in back to back seasons with eight or more wins in consecutive seasons in Class AAA. And this is just Marion’s second year at the helm. I have to think what Marion did in his first year attracted starting QB Devin Richardson, a Beckley transfer, to Oak Hill. That’s going to become the norm with the transfer portal open and kids seeking systems they feel better suit their skillsets.
By all accounts, there were legitimate complaints with the officiating all around in this game, though. The loudest such came near at the end of the game when a penalty on fourth-and-5 led to a measurement. Oak Hill ended up on the right side of the measurement, netting a first down that sealed the game.
Beckley head coach Street Sarrett was understandably frustrated.
You have to take the game out of the official’s hands there. Beckley came up short on a drive with under two minutes to go, giving the ball back to Oak Hill. That set up the fourth down penalty where Beckley was flagged, leading to a measurement. Oak Hill’s tried to draw teams offside on fourth down all year long. It successfully did so early against Princeton and unsuccessfully did so against Bluefield, getting flagged for a false start on a fourth-and-short.
This reminder isn’t specific to Beckley. There are 60-plus plays in any given high school football game. It never comes down to just one.
But Beckley does still finds itself in a difficult spot.
The Flying Eagles started 5-1 for the third straight year and are now a cumulative 1-10 in their regular season contests following those starts (1-11 if you add in a playoff loss in 2022). The program desperately needs a spark. Fortunately, as bleak as the outlook is in the midst of this year’s skid, there’s a recent example of Sarrett’s squad turning the corner.
In 2021 following a 2-5 start, the Flying Eagles rebounded with a victory over Oak Hill and a playoff-clinching victory at defending Class AAA champion South Charleston.
The turnaround can start this week with a statement win against George Washington, generating momentum heading into the playoffs.
Email: tylerjackson@lootpress.com and follow on Twitter @tjack94
