With a few rare exceptions, one thing is all but certain in American elections: The winner will likely be a Republican or a Democrat. America’s two-party system is characterized by a liberal-conservative split that essentially forces even moderates to pick a side.
In many cases, the side you pick can have a lot to do with where you live. In 2021, The New York Times reported that America has spent the last few decades “self-segregating” into “blue” (liberal-leaning) states and “red” (conservative-leaning) states. And while this may not seem to be that big of a deal on the surface, research published by the journal Nature shows that it is actually quite troubling: In addition to exacerbating existing partisan squabbling, this type of extreme polarization may very well be a threat to democracy itself.
In addition to the conflict between the two dominant parties, many conservatives find themselves at a crossroads within their own party as the presidential election nears. Some embrace Donald Trump’s rhetoric, including the proliferation of the “Big Lie.” Others accept the legitimacy of the last presidential election and prefer to follow a more traditional form of modern-day Republicanism. With Nikki Haley, the last Republican opponent to Trump, officially out of the primary race, Trump-skeptical Republicans will face a challenging choice this November.
Stacker used data from Gallup to rank all 50 states by the percentage of conservative residents and then by the percentage of residents who identify as moderate. If both percentages were the same for more than one state, that ranking qualifies as a tie. Additionally, data from 270toWin and the Cook Political Report’s 2020 National Popular Vote Tracker was used to show how many times the state voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1964 and how many votes were cast for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.
It might not come as a surprise that the states with the lowest concentrations of conservatives are on the West Coast, in the Northeast, and in New England. Sparsely populated rural and Southern states dominated the list of those with the most conservatives.
Additional writing by Emma Rubin.
#50. Massachusetts
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 21%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 2 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,167,202 (32.1%)
#49. Hawaii
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 22%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 45%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 2 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 196,864 (34.3%)
#48. New York
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 27%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 3 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 3,250,075 (37.7%)
#46. New Hampshire (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 28%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 7 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 365,654 (45.4%)
#46. Vermont (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 28%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 6 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 112,704 (30.7%)
#45. Washington
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 28%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 4 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,584,651 (38.8%)
#44. California
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 29%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 6 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 6,006,429 (34.3%)
#43. New Jersey
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 29%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 6 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,883,274 (41.4%)
#42. Maryland
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 29%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 39%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 3 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 976,414 (32.2%)
#41. Rhode Island
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 29%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 40%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 2 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 199,922 (38.6%)
#40. Delaware
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 29%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 43%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 5 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 200,603 (39.8%)
#39. Connecticut
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 30%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 5 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 715,291 (39.2%)
#38. Illinois
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 31%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 6 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 2,446,891 (40.6%)
#37. Oregon
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 32%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 5 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 958,448 (40.4%)
#36. Minnesota
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 32%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 1 time (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,484,048 (45.3%)
#34. Colorado (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 33%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 9 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,364,607 (41.9%)
#34. Virginia (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 33%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 10 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,962,430 (44.0%)
#32. Michigan (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 33%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 6 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 2,649,852 (47.8%)
#32. Nevada (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 33%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 8 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 669,890 (47.7%)
#31. Pennsylvania
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 34%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 5 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 3,378,263 (48.8%)
#30. Maine
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 35%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 29%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 5 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 360,737 (44.0%)
#29. Wisconsin
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 35%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 5 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,610,184 (48.8%)
#28. Iowa
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 35%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 39%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 8 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 897,672 (53.1%)
#27. Florida
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 36%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 10 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 5,668,731 (51.2%)
#26. Nebraska
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 36%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 556,846 (58.5%)
#25. Ohio
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 37%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 9 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 3,154,834 (53.3%)
#24. Arizona
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 37%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 13 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,661,686 (49.1%)
#23. Texas
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 38%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 36%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 12 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 5,890,347 (52.1%)
#22. New Mexico
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 38%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 7 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 401,894 (43.5%)
#21. North Carolina
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 33%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 12 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 2,758,775 (49.9%)
#19. Georgia (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 10 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 2,461,854 (49.3%)
#19. Kentucky (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 11 time (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,326,646 (62.1%)
#16. Indiana (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 13 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,729,516 (57.0%)
#16. Kansas (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 771,406 (56.2%)
#16. Montana (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 13 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 343,602 (56.9%)
#15. North Dakota
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 39%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 41%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 235,595 (65.1%)
#14. Idaho
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 40%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 554,119 (63.9%)
#13. Alaska
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 40%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 189,951 (52.8%)
#12. Missouri
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 41%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 34%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 11 time (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,718,736 (56.8%)
#11. South Carolina
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 41%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,385,103 (55.1%)
#10. Arkansas
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 41%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 38%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 10 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 760,647 (62.4%)
#9. Utah
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 41%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 40%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 865,140 (58.1%)
#8. Tennessee
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 43%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 34%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 11 time (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,852,475 (60.7%)
#6. Louisiana (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 43%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 11 time (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,255,776 (58.5%)
#6. Oklahoma (tie)
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 43%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 35%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,020,280 (65.4%)
#5. South Dakota
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 44%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 37%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 261,043 (61.8%)
#4. West Virginia
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 45%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 31%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 8 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 545,382 (68.6%)
#3. Wyoming
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 46%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 31%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 14 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 193,559 (69.9%)
#2. Alabama
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 46%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 34%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 13 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 1,441,170 (62.0%)
#1. Mississippi
– Residents who consider themselves conservative: 50%
– Residents who consider themselves moderate: 29%
– Presidential election outcome between 1964-2020: voted Republican 13 times (out of 15)
– Votes cast for Donald Trump in 2020: 756,789 (57.6%)
