WASHINGTON, D.C. (LOOTPRESS) — Americans are planning to spend an average of $1,007 on holiday gifts this year, according to a new Gallup poll conducted from October 1–16, 2025. That figure is nearly identical to last year’s estimate of $1,014 and continues a trend of elevated spending since the pandemic, up from $923 in 2023.
Despite growing economic uncertainty, 86% of Americans say they plan to buy gifts this holiday season. Roughly one-third (31%) expect to spend under $500, 18% plan to spend between $500 and $999, and 37% anticipate spending $1,000 or more. Only 8% say they won’t spend anything or don’t celebrate the holidays, while 5% remain unsure.
Most Consumers Expect to Spend About the Same
A majority of Americans — 56% — say their spending will be about the same as last year, slightly below the long-term average of 60%. About 19% expect to spend more, while 23% say they’ll spend less.
These numbers reflect a steady but cautious consumer outlook. During the Great Recession, about a quarter of Americans reported cutting back on holiday spending, while the most optimistic years came between 2017 and 2019, when spending growth was strongest.
Income Gap Widens in Holiday Spending
Spending plans differ sharply by income level.
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Lower-income households (earning under $50,000) expect to spend $651, down from $776 last year.
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Middle-income households plan to spend $847, close to last year’s $902.
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High-income households (earning $100,000 or more) project spending $1,479, up from $1,403 in 2024.
Among lower-income Americans, only 18% say they’ll spend more than last year — a notable drop from 28% in 2024. Meanwhile, 23% of higher-income consumers expect to increase spending, suggesting economic pressures are being felt unevenly across households.
Retail Outlook: Steady Spending Could Mean Strong Sales
Gallup’s October survey has historically been a strong indicator of actual holiday sales in November and December. In past years, when spending forecasts were steady or rising, retail sales typically grew by 4% or more.
Based on historical patterns, Gallup analysts predict 2025 holiday retail sales could climb 4% to 5%, signaling another solid season for retailers.
Economic Crosswinds Ahead
While inflation has inched back up to 3% and wage growth has slowed, the stock market’s record highs in October may keep wealthier households confident in their holiday budgets. However, uncertainty from the recent government shutdown and tighter budgets among working families could temper overall growth.
Gallup will release an updated holiday spending forecast in November to gauge whether consumers maintain their spending optimism as the season begins.
