(LOOTPRESS) – The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, citing the expected development of El Niño conditions during the peak of the season.
According to NOAA’s outlook, the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 through November 30, has a 55% chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of being near normal, and only a 10% chance of being above normal.
Forecasters predict between 8 and 14 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Of those storms, 3 to 6 are expected to strengthen into hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes classified as Category 3 or higher with sustained winds exceeding 111 mph.
An average Atlantic hurricane season typically produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
NOAA officials said the anticipated El Niño pattern is expected to help suppress tropical storm and hurricane development in the Atlantic Basin. However, slightly warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds could still support some storm activity.
“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to provide real-time forecasts and warnings using advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technology.
NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs also highlighted the agency’s use of newer technologies, including artificial intelligence-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data to improve forecasting accuracy.
Officials stressed that the seasonal outlook does not predict where storms may make landfall and warned residents not to let their guard down despite the lower forecast.
NOAA encourages residents to prepare ahead of hurricane season by reviewing emergency plans and staying informed throughout the season.
